TOLERANCE OF UNCERTAINTY AND THE VUCA/BANI MANAGERIAL ENVIRONMENT

Abstract

This article examines tolerance of uncertainty (TU) as a key psychological precondition for effective management in today’s VUCA and BANI world. The aim is to synthesize the interpretation of TU from classical approaches to integrative models and align it with the VUCA/BANI frameworks. The study uses a narrative theoretical review with comparative conceptual analysis, content analysis of related terms, and conceptual mapping of linkages between psychological constructs and the managerial context. The findings indicate that VUCA/BANI elements can be interpreted as a configuration of sources and moderators of uncertainty within an integrative TU model. The analysis suggests that the newer BANI framework shifts the emphasis among contextual moderators – toward system brittleness, an anxious affective backdrop, nonlinearity of causes and effects, and limited interpretability of events. TU is framed as a manager’s meta-competence: it reduces threat-laden appraisals amid data gaps, supports various scenario planning, and enables timely decisions under incomplete and conflicting information. The analysis also highlights the cascading impact at the micro–meso–macro levels: from reduced decision latency and lower cognitive rigidity to the cultivation of psychological safety in teams and increased institutional trust in the organization. The proposed integrative framework that combines TU with VUCA/BANI models opens opportunities for more comprehensive training programs for existing and future management professionals. It is important to note that BANI remains a relatively young framework: it lacks standardized indicators and established measurement procedures and requires cross-sector and cross-cultural validation.